It's early, but never too early for discussion about who will win the regular season MVP.
If I was betting, and I probably will, I'd be looking to place money on LeBron for his 5th, or Kawhi or Blake for their 1st.
Kawhi had like 10 to 1 odds with as realistic of a path as anybody out there, and he's started the season out looking like he has a fire burning in his gut. First man in NBA history to start the season with back2back games of 30 plus points and 5 steals. Might be the best two-way player in the game today, and for the next 5 years...Plus he's now the NBA's biggest young winner. Has won more games in his first 300 contests than any man who's ever played. And he was a major factor in his teams winning unlike some guys on the list... Kawhi is a bad, bad man...His confidence is soaring and he may be the best bet of everybody...
Blake is poised to have his best season after sitting out 40 some games last year. He might split votes with CP3 but Chris seems to have lost momentum with fans and perhaps even voters, and Blake should be the clear team leader in advanced numbers like WARP and PER. If the Clippers can somehow achieve a record close to Golden States, a Clipper could very well win the award.
He didn't mention it in this article below, but something like the last 30 MVPs has been won by a guy whose team either had the most wins in their division, conference, or had the leagues best overall record. The Pacific Division should be won by the much vaunted Warriors but if it isn't, Blake is quite likely the 2017 MVP. He's not a bad outside bet and also has great odds at something like 11 to 1 I think... This factor goes against a guy like Westbrook, or Harden, whose teams aren't likely to carry them to Division wins. If one of them doesn't become the 2nd man to ever lead the league in scoring and assists, their ceremony is unlikely. However crazy their number might be... ANd really the same goes for AD. He could average 40 but if the Pels are as bad all season as they are right now, he might as well plan his vacation early.
Bron I think can taste his 5th award. He really doesn't even need to be the best player in the league because in the voters minds, they already know when the chips are on the line, he will be. He'll likely get some credit for that this season. His team also looks like it might be the most cohesive group in the locker room and court he's ever played on. Not sure there's a single hater in the bunch, and it may provide for a season where his joy of the game is on display and leads his group to a record people weren't expecting. They've been projected to win 52-53 games after winning 56 last year with Kyrie gone for 24 games and a coaching change mid-season. 57 to 60 seems more realistic to me. And while his stats won't be the best we've ever witnessed from him, he is poised to have a career high in assists per game. Kyrie will move into a more primary scoring role, and garner more respect league wide. I saw Chauncey Billups crown him Best Point Guard in the League the other day...But people realize that without James onboard the Cavs would be in a far different position. So the 4 year hiatus from the MVP podium for perhaps the most complete basketball player to ever play, may come to an end in 2017.
For Durant and Steph, and even Green, if they win less than 73 games it could be seens as a step back. If they win less than 67 of the year before, they may point fingers at KD. And if they don't lead the league in wins after all the predictions and having 2 MVPS, it will be considered a failure of a regular season if they can't win it all in June. So they all seem to be out of the picture.
Attached below is a great piece form ESPN Insider that takes a more in depth look at the race and how guys might stack up.
Who you got??
Predicting who wins the wide-open MVP race
The MVP race is the closest that NBA coverage gets to political coverage, with an election at the end. When Kevin Durant joined the Warriors, the MVP horse race opened up to a lot more candidates, with the optics of Durant's move changing the narrative.
So who are the main candidates now? Let's look at the top MVP candidates and the "lanes" they are running in -- and why the usual rules might not apply in this season's election.
Here are the 12 major players in the race, including the two front-runners, with the potential for a surprise winner:
Best player on best team
MVP percentage: 91.7 percent (11 of 12)
In this case, "best player" means the best player in the league -- and one who also happens to be on the best team.
When the league's best player -- as measured by my wins above replacement player (WARP) statistic, which provides a snapshot of who has the best box score stats -- also plays for the best team, typically that's been a wrap.
Since 1980-81, when the media took over MVP voting from the players, that combination has failed to win MVP just once in 12 tries: in 1997-98, when Karl Malone finished second behind Michael Jordan (whose Chicago Bulls tied Malone's Utah Jazz for the league's best record).
So does that mean Stephen Curry -- who indeed was the best player for the best team the past two regular seasons -- will win a third consecutive MVP if the Warriors are as good as we expect despite early struggles?
Perhaps not. For one thing, it's possible that the addition of Durant means that Curry -- who won't shoulder as heavy an offensive load -- is no longer the league's best player in statistical terms.
Beyond that, another element makes this race unique: There is no precedent for the NBA's best player having a sidekick as good as Durant, who posted 17.6 WARP last season with the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Just twice since 1980-81 has the league's WARP leader had another teammate with at least 15 WARP: Malone and John Stockton in 1991-92, when Malone finished fourth in MVP voting and Stockton 12th; and LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in 2010-11, the only time in a five-season span that James wasn't chosen MVP.
At the same time, Curry's presence means it will be difficult for Durant or the super versatile Draymond Green to win the MVP award, even if one of them ends up as the best player on the best team. That means the door is wide-open for a number of other candidates, no matter what Curry, Durant, Green and the Warriors do.
Top-5 player on best team
MVP percentage: 66.7 percent (10 of 15)
Even when the best player on the best team isn't quite the best player in the league, that combination has resulted in winning MVP more often than not.
It's noteworthy that the two times when such players haven't finished in the top four of the voting, it was in part because of split voting.
In 2004-05, Shawn Marion was overshadowed by teammate Steve Nash, finishing 14th while Nash won the award. And in 1980-81, Robert Parishfinished a hair ahead of teammate Larry Bird in WARP, but Bird was second in MVP voting while Parish was seventh.
Parish's presence might have helped Julius Erving -- the league's leader in WARP -- edge Bird in a close MVP vote, which might be pertinent to this season's outcome.
Best player on top-10 team
MVP percentage: 33.3 percent (2 of 6)
With the race appearing to be wide-open, Russell Westbrook, James Hardenand Damian Lillard are trendy candidates. For instance, Warriors coach Steve Kerr predicted Lillard would win the MVP trophy rather than picking one of the two former MVPs on his own team, Curry or Durant. Kerr likewise compared the race to the presidential election, calling Lillard a likely beneficiary of a split vote between Steph and KD.
But the MVP percentage for this type of candidate implies only a 1-in-3 chance and underscores the difficulty that Westbrook, Harden and Lillard will face in trying to take the election. When the league leader in WARP has been on a team that is good but not great, that has rarely translated into an MVP.
The best model for this lane winning MVP was Jordan in 1987-88, when he averaged 35.0 points, 5.9 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 3.2 steals per game for a Bulls team that won 50 games. Jordan's stats were so impressive that he couldn't be denied; his 26.8 WARP was, at that point, the most a player had recorded since individual turnovers were first tracked in 1977-78.
So, there is a path here to the MVP award. If Westbrook sets a record for triple-doubles, Harden leads the league in both scoring and assists or Lillard maintains his 35-point scoring average, one of them could follow in the footsteps of Jordan and Moses Malone in 1981-82. But they probably need to be unprecedentedly spectacular, not just really good.
Best player on top-5 team
MVP percentage: 30.8 percent (4 of 13)
It's been four seasons since LeBron was named MVP, and he's been vocal about his hopes of adding a fifth Maurice Podoloff Trophy to his collection, which would tie him with Jordan. Kawhi Leonard, on the other hand, isn't vocal about much (although he has quietly started his own hardware collection with a Finals MVP and two defensive player of the year awards).
They do have one thing in common: This is the likely lane for LeBron and Kawhi to the MVP award. If either the Cleveland Cavaliers or San Antonio Spurscan edge out Golden State for the league's best record, that would make their star the favorite as the classic superstar-on-the-best-team kind of player (and particularly because their teams are not expected to compete for the best record, adding a surprise element).
But even if they fall short of that, both teams should be comfortably in the league's top five, giving James and Leonard a realistic shot at MVP if either of them can emerge as the NBA's best player.
Even if Curry slips, James and Leonard will have plenty of competition to lead the league in WARP. James finished fourth last season, behind Curry, Westbrook and Harden, while Leonard was seventh. But both players are off to great starts this season, as are their teams.
Top-5 player on top-5 team
MVP percentage: 8.3 percent (5 of 60)
This year's circumstances could set up James and Leonard to win from this lane -- usually not an easy way to win -- for the first time since Kobe Bryant took this route to the MVP award in 2007-08.
If the Warriors are the league's best team and Curry and Durant do split the vote, and if the league leader in WARP comes from a fringe playoff team, that might leave either James or Leonard as the top MVP candidate thanks to the best combination of individual and team success.
Other potential MVP candidates in this lane include Paul George, Chris Pauland Blake Griffin, although CP3 and Griffin could (as in some previous years) split the vote as Clippers teammates.
Top-20 player on best team
MVP percentage: 5.9 percent (1 of 17)
Top-10 player on best team
MVP percentage: 5.3 percent (1 of 19)
There's no reason to believe that players are actually better off being outside the top 10 if they're on the best team; the results you see here are just flukes because of small sample sizes. But it shows that it is possible in rare circumstances.
Either way, when the best team doesn't have an elite individual player, it typically doesn't produce an MVP. The exceptions here were Jordan in 1997-98, when he was sixth in WARP, and Nash in 2004-05 (12th).
Top-20 player on top-5 team
MVP percentage: 2.0 percent (2 of 100)
Here's the last lane that has resulted in MVP awards, and it's clearly the result of a discrepancy between advanced stats and how the voters perceived the winners. Nash was 11th in WARP when he won his second MVP in 2005-06, while Allen Iverson ranked 18th during his 2000-01 MVP campaign.
Best player on bottom-20 team
MVP percentage: 0.0 percent (0 of 5)
Even in a season where the normal rules might not apply, odds are this one still will. No player on a team outside the league's top 10 has won MVP in the modern era.
In fact, only one -- Jordan in 1986-87, when the Bulls went 40-42 -- has even finished second. That might rule out Anthony Davis despite his impressive start to the season, and it makes finishing in the league's top 10 a must for Harden, Lillard and Westbrook. After all, they don't want to end up in a no-win lane.
So, who wins this election?
James and Leonard are the favorites to win on this scorecard, with at least four paths for each to the MVP crown.
It's easy to see either (or both) of them being a top-5 player on a top-5 team. Or one of them could qualify as the best player on a top-5 team or a top-5 player on the best team.
And if you want a hint as to which is more likely to be on the best team, you should know that ESPN's Basketball Power Index sees the Spurs leading the NBA with 62 wins.
Of course, LeBron or Kawhi could make this a relatively easy election by being the best player on the best team. After all, even in a season that looks different from anything else we've seen, that's still the classic route to the voters' hearts.