It's been my belief for some time that the NBA manipulates outcomes of games through timely calls or non-calls made by the officials. Not by mistakes made by those officials, but with a clear intention of changing game outcomes and player perceptions with the public.
Many of us have read Tim Donaghy's book Personal Foul . Donaghy is the ex-NBA official who was ousted for gambling on games with organized crime members and subsequently incarcerated. I did, and after reading that, many of my feelings were substantiated through Donaghy's assertions.
The problem is, is that the NBA (and probably other professional sports leagues) have become masterminds at hiding what's happening. When we go to a Harlem Globetrotters game, we know the officials and two teams are all one product working together. It's a similar setup in the NBA but it's disguised in a more competitive format. So as fans we're not apt to see the overt manipulation like we do in the Globetrotter contests, and go home with the feeling that it was true, fair competition.
Again, I don't believe it really is true competition, necessarily. It's a controlled entertainment product disguised as honest competition. There's too much money at stake to believe otherwise...
The players aren't aware of it, and have no control over whether the officials calls will benefit or hurt them and their public images. That's for the heads at the NBA to decide based off market research they pay millions to collect from anonymous fan groups that participate in questionnaires, and through consultation with entertainment experts .
Don't believe your favorite League is being manipulated? There are some statistics we can investigate to see how the model works.
I look at how and where players tend to operate on the floor to decide if a person should be a high free throw attempt individual or not. Generally, the closer to the rim a player operates, the more they draw fouls. The further out their average attempt and general patterns of movement are, they draw less fouls, generating fewer free throws, naturally. We can all accept that. Play near the rim and get fouled more- play out in space and play relatively free of contact. Right? It's common sense...So stats should back that notion up.
In particular, I looked at LeBron James numbers for the young year. Still the biggest star in the NBA and best player in the NBA. We just witnessed him drop 57 last night becoming only the 2nd player in NBA history to hit over 50 after their 15th season. Kobe had 60 in his last game on 50 shots. Bron had an efficient, "young mans" night with under 35 balls hoisted. He led the NBA in minutes last year and is second per game right now again, so basically, he's still "the Man"... We used to believe "The Man" would get the benefit of the whistles just because of their status. Forget where they operate, they always get all the LOVE...That really hasn't been the case for James.
43% of James shots come from 0-3 feet from the basket and he uses 23% of his attempts to launch 3balls. He has a career free throw rate of 42%. Meaning on 42% of his attempts he draws a shooting foul. About what we might expect from a guy who plays so near the bucket and so many minutes. Perhaps low for a guy of his status, but considerable...This year he's experiencing a career low 27% FT rate despite being a leader in minutes and spending more time in the paint than most guys. He's averaging a career low 5 FT attempts per game and isn't in the NBA's top 20 in attempts per game... The numbers indicate it's not about aggressiveness or where he moves on the court, and we all know if he's not the man he's still the NBA cash cow, so what is it?
For comparison, let's look at a a handful of players numbers:
Harden- 20% of shots come from 0-3 feet, while 52% come from 3point range. His FTR or free throw rate, is 38%, down from a ridiculous 58% last year while they were boosting his MVP credentials all season.
Cousins- He's at a career low with only 27% of his attempts coming from 0-3, while attempting a career high 37% of his shots from deep. His FTR is still around 43% where it's always been. More of his shots come from deep, less from the inside, he plays the same minutes, yet still gets to the stripe more than James. He complains more than most, so maybe the squeaky wheel is just getting the oil?
ADavis- 38% of shots come from 0-3, 16% come from downtown. His FTR is a career high 53%, up from 42% last year. More of James shots come close to the rim, he plays 2 more minutes per night, yet Davis gets twice the calls James gets.
Dwight Howard- 72% of his shots come from 0-3, he shoots no 3's, and has a 98% FTR! They obviously foul Dwight Intentionally more than other guys since he's at 40% from the stripe, but he plays close to the bucket so he gets fouled and is sent to the line naturally a lot as well.
Dame Lillard- 30% of Dames shots are from 0-3, and 39% come from deep. He's getting to the stripe at LeBrons career rate of 42% this year- A career high. He's being boosted up at the FT line from what numbers would suggest...
Steph- Only 22% of his shots are from 0-3 feet out, and 58% come from deep. He has a FTR of 44%! Almost 20% higher than his career best...He's being boosted up, or his team because they've struggled out of the gate. But he falls down on every drive whether he's hit or not and gets the benefit of the whistle. I'm sure when James watches how the refs treat Steph he wants to vomit.
Then there's Giannis. Everybody's talking about the MVP. The league may have other plans as indicated by the way they're officiating him this year. Giannis is one of the few non-bigs who spends more time in the 0-3 feet area than James. 50% of his attempts come from close up. Only 11% of his shots come from 3point range. His FTR is 36%, down from 49% last year. What? He went from a 28 to a 34% usage rate and his free throw attempts have gone down? If you've watched some Milwaukee games you've seen the young stud scratching his head a lot this year...
So while you may not agree that James is hurt from officiating, or that the NBA is trying to manipulate the outcomes and perceptions, we can agree that officiating is wildly inconsistent. This understanding alone allows room for manipulation. So it's something I always keep my eye on.
Throughout the year, there will be instances of NBA manipulation or a questionable handling of events that pops up from time to time. If you see those type of situations post about them in this thread and we can compare notes.